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I-695 foes may stretch truth in ads about vanishing jobs
I-695 foes may stretch truth in ads about vanishing jobs
by Jim Lynch
Seattle Times Olympia bureau
Radio ads begin airing statewide today, warning voters that Initiative 695
is "a road to nowhere" that will cut funding for 1,000 police officers and make
74,000 construction jobs "disappear."
But those claims could be misleading if taken literally, because the wording
and the numbers are based on unlikely worst-case scenarios.
The ads are part of the rhetoric heating up in the final three weeks before
voters determine the fate of the ballot measure, which would cut the state car
tax to a flat $30 annual fee and require a public vote on any future tax or
fee increase.
Opponents of I-695 are airing the ads on 51 stations throughout the state
- including Seattle stations KOMO-AM (1000), KIXI-AM (880) and KJR-AM (950)
- and timing them to coincide with absentee ballots going out to voters this
week.
I-695 supporters are countering with aggressive mailings, in which initiative
sponsor Tim Eyman solicits people to write a "DARN BIG" check. Eyman is counting
on popular support to battle ads by the opposition, which has raised nine times
as much cash to defeat the measure.
The new ads, purchased by No on 695, warn listeners that the initiative sounds
too good to be true. The ads stress consequences: increased road congestion
and decreased funding for transit, public health, and police- and fire-protection
services.
It's known that I-695, if approved, would take away the state's fourth-largest
revenue stream - about $750 million a year - and derail $2.4 billion in statewide
roadwork that was committed last year when voters approved Referendum 49.
Effect on jobs is disputed
But the ads are on shakier ground when they try to project the specific effect
on jobs.
"I-695 will also cost jobs, lots of jobs," says the radio voice. "Seventy-four
thousand jobs will disappear from the loss of road-construction money. Funding
for 1,000 police officers will be gone."
The construction-job projections come from the Associated General Contractors
of Washington and another construction-lobbying group in Olympia, both of which
depend on state contracts for transportation projects. The estimates are extrapolated
from a University of Washington study that suggests 30.8 jobs are created for
every $1 million spent on construction.
The problem with that calculation, and the way it is presented, is twofold:
First, the ad says the jobs "disappear," creating the impression that those
jobs already exist, and that almost half the state's 150,000 construction jobs
could vanish.
"That's not credible," said Bret Bertolin, senior economic forecaster for
the state Office of Forecasting, after the ad was read to him.
Temporary jobs included in count
Secondly, the ad doesn't clarify that the affected "jobs" include projects
that may last only a few weeks. Such calculations are "kind of meaningless,"
said Dick Conway, a Seattle economist who serves on Gov. Gary Locke's council
of economic advisers.
Conway said a more-credible gauge of industry job losses would be this: About
$100,000 of public road money equals one construction job a year. Using that
formula, about 24,000 jobs would be jeopardized during the six years of the
slated roadwork, or about 4,000 a year.
Such a downturn could chill an industry that has been growing at 6.2 percent
a year since 1996. But economists also say I-695 likely would not change overall
unemployment levels in the state: People would have more money in their pockets,
and their increased spending would create retail and service jobs.
The radio ad also ignores the possibility that if I-695 were to pass, the
Legislature and the public might find other ways to pay for desired, but delayed,
road projects.
Extrapolating from UW study
Mark Funk, spokesman for No on 695, said the construction-layoff numbers are
not misleading.
He said the figures reflect what could happen, as extrapolated from calculations
in the 1997 UW study. He said the estimate includes the loss of jobs indirectly
linked to the construction industry.
The claim that the initiative threatens 1,000 police jobs is questioned by
one of the state's law-enforcement lobbies, the Washington Association of Sheriffs
and Police Chiefs.
"I'm not comfortable confirming that number," said President Larry Erickson,
a former Spokane County sheriff. "I've been around long enough to not predict
what city and county councils will do."
The police-layoff prediction came from another law-enforcement lobby, the
Washington Council of Police and Sheriffs, headed by Mike Patrick. Patrick said
he based the estimate on discussions with police across the state and surveys
by the Association of Washington Cities.
"I feel confident the number is solid," he said.
Backing away from dire forecasts
But interviews with city officials throughout the state indicate most local
governments are backing away from earlier, more-dire predictions on police cutbacks.
For example, the city of Yakima earlier estimated it would lose 10 police
officers. City Manager Richard Zais said he since has found a way to get around
that.
"There will be no layoffs here," he said.
Zais said the city might have to leave four vacancies unfilled when officers
retire or quit. Beyond that, the city is prepared to cut deeper into library,
parks, legal and general-administration budgets.
Other cities and counties have reached similar conclusions - that their estimated
police cuts may be half as severe as originally feared. In King County, the
Sheriff's Office initially reported as many as 77 officers could lose their
jobs with I-695. The agency now says the number would be closer to 40.
Funk insists that No on 695 has been careful with its information, saying
explicitly in its ad that the initiative threatens funding for 1,000 police
officers instead of stating that they would lose their jobs.
But Eyman said the new round of ads are the continuation of a scare-tactic
campaign against his initiative.
