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C-Tran looks at likely I-695 effects
C-TRAN LOOKS AT LIKELY I-695 EFFECTS
Thursday, October 7, 1999
By GREGG HERRINGTON, Columbian staff writer
If 60 cents is an affordable rate for a bus fare on C-Tran, how does $2.20
sound?
How about $5.79?
Would you pay anywhere near that much to ride the bus one way from Point A
to Point B in Vancouver, or even across the county? Would anybody?
Those are academic questions, to be sure. C-Tran has no plans to charge that
much to cover its losses if Washington's voters approve Initiative 695 next
month.
But those are numbers it would be starting the discussion with if it had to
make up losses form I-695 strictly on the backs of passengers.
Voter approval of 695 would wipe out the 2.2 percent state Motor Vehicle Excise
Tax and substitute a flat $30 per-vehicle license-renewal fee. I-695 also would
require a public vote before any government or government agency could increase
any tax or fee, be it as broad as a sales tax or as narrow as a bus fare or
copy-machine charge.
The motor vehicle tax is now budgeted to provide $11.4 million to C-Tran next
year. While the fare questions are academic, they illustrate the hit C-Tran
will suffer if the measure passes, wiping out 42 percent of its $27.5 million
operating budget for the year.
Other agencies and programs health districts, city and county police and fire
departments, the state ferry system and especially the state's highway construction
and maintenance programs have their own "What if 695 passes" horror stories.
Service cuts studied
At C-Tran, says spokeswoman Gail Spolar, the staff is looking at various ways
to continue operating if 695 is approved. Even if it weren't on the ballot,
C-Tran would be going ahead with plans for its first increase in several years
later this fall that will boost the basic fare from 60 cents to 90 cents.
But if 695 passes and the state payments end as of Jan. 1, Spolar says, service
cutbacks will be at the top of the priority list. Those likely would include
a combination of steps, such as: operating fewer hours on weekdays, eliminating
service on Sundays and holidays, dropping the free downtown-Vancouver shuttle,
and eliminating free bus rides to the Fourth of July fireworks show and the
Clark County Fair.
The C-Tran Board of Directors local elected officials would have to decide
this fall on cuts, Spolar said.
The 'death spiral'
But, what if C-Tran wanted to keep service at the same level, with no cutbacks
in service or its discounts or free rides? What if it wanted to do that, and
have the regular paying customers make up for the lost state money through increased
regular fares?
That's the academic question put to C-Tran finance director Fred Bateman on
Wednesday, if only as one way to illustrate the significance of the state contribution
to C-Tran operations.
Bateman did some number crunching, then reported that if everything else stayed
the same, the average regular fare would have to be $5.79 to make ends meet.
If C-Tran did away with all free and reduced-price rides and everybody paid
full fare all the time, the price would come down to $2.20 a trip, he said.
That's still about four times more than the present 60-cent one-zone fare.
And even those numbers, sky high as they might be, are way too rosy, Bateman
notes, because in the mass transit business, when prices go up even slightly,
ridership drops. Fare hikes that high would mean far fewer riders, so the remaining
riders would have to pay even more than the $5.79 in the illustration.
"It is," said Bateman, "a death spiral."
Gregg Herrington covers state and local issues. He may be reached at 699-6006,
Ext. 2325, or via e-mail at gregg.herrington@columbian.com.
