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SUBJECTS › GOVERNANCE › Demographic Change and Local Government: Overview of Issues
Updated 05/08

Demographic Change and Local Government: Overview of Issues

Contents

About Demographic Changes

Changing demographics associated with -- increased life expectancy, an aging population, retirement of the baby boomers, more immigrants,  changes in the ethnic make-up, and generational diversity --  are all expected to create new demands on society.  The citations on this page are to information that address  trends that  will  affect local governments.    The composition of the workforce will change,  as will the constituent population that the local government serves.  See also companion pages, Workforce Issues and Planning for Services.

  • 300 Million and Counting, by Joel Garreau, Smithsonian, October 2006 - The United States reaches a demographic milestone, thanks largely to immigration
  • America's Demographic Tapestry: Baseline for the New Millennium, edited by James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca, Rutgers University Press,  1999.  MRSC Library Loan [POP 4.0000 A54 1999]
  • Demographics Affect Demand Niches, by Nina Gruen, Urban Land, January 2004  MRSC Library Loan
  • Diversity & Governance: Changing Populations and the Future of Cities and Towns, National League of Cities  MRSC Library Loan  [POP 4.0000 D555 1991**]
  • Governing Diverse Communities : A Focus on Race and Ethnic Relations, edited by Patricia Reichler and Polly B. Dredge. National League of Cities, 1997   MRSC Library Loan  [H 4.0000 G67 1997]
  • Population Change: Know the Trends in Your Community,  by Annabel Kirschner Cook, (Coping with Growth) Washington State University, 1993. MRSC Library Loan [POP 3.000 P655 1993**]  1998 update available from Western Rural Development Center.
  • Population Myths, Trends and Transportation Planning, by Glen H Hiemstra, Futurist, April 2003 
  • Predicting Growth and Change in Your Communities: A Guide to Subcounty Population Forecasting,  Washington State Department of Community Development, Growth Management Division, June 1993.   MRSC Library Loan
  • Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change (117 KB), by Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest, Other Conference Presentations, Federal Reserve Bank, Boston, 2001

Increase in Life Expectancy and the Number of Older Adults

The United States is on the brink of a longevity revolution. By 2030, the number of older Americans will have more than doubled to 70 million, or one in every five Americans. The growing number and proportion of older adults places increasing demands on the public health system and on medical and social services.  From  Center for Disease Control,  Healthy Aging for Older Adults

The seniors of the 2030s will be even more racially and ethnically diverse than today's seniors.  Health care expenditures for a 65-year-old are now four times those for a 40-year-old. Because the population will be older and greater in number, overall U.S. health care expenditures are projected to increase 25% by 2030. From Center for Disease Control, Healthy Aging: Preventing Disease and Improving Quality of Life Among Older Americans At A Glance, 2004

Retirement of Baby Boomers

Currently the baby boom generation makes up  the largest segment of the workforce in the public sector.  In the next decade 77 million  baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964,  the largest group in history, are contemplating retirement.    Some analysts believe that baby boomer retirement will create possible skilled labor shortages.

Increase in  Immigrant Population

About 40 percent of the nearly 33 million increase in the size of the U.S. population during the 1990s is directly attributable to the arrival of new immigrants.  Immigration will account for about 63 percent of U.S. population growth over the next 50 years.   From The Impact of Immigration on  U.S. Population Growth Testimony prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security, and Claims, August 2, 2001, by Steven Camarota Director of Research, Center for Immigration Studies

Cultural and Ethnic Diversity

The United States is, perhaps more than any other industrialized country, distinguished by the size and diversity of its racial and ethnic populations; and current trends promise that these features will endure. In fact, demographers project that by the year 2050 the United States will likely have no single majority group. From America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Ch. 1 Volume 1, National Academy Press, 2001.

Demographically, the share of whites and males in the labor force will continue to fall in the 21st century, while the share of women and ethnic and racial minority workers, especially Hispanics and Asians, will grow.  From Executive Summary: The Changing Face of the 21st Century Workforce: Trends in Ethnicity, Race, Age, & Gender,  Employment Policy Foundation, 1998

Generational Diversity

For the first time in  history, there will be four generations in the work force:  persons born before 1945,  the baby boomers, generation X, and  generation Y, the baby boom echo generation.  It is felt that the demographic changes in the workforce will require  employers  to adjust virtually all of their policies and practices to the values of the new generations.

    Characteristics of  Generations

      Veterans, Matures, Traditionalists, the Silent Generation or Gray Eagles, born before 1945. Of the four generations they are the smallest in number (55 million), wealthiest and most likely to vote. They are loyal to their employer and expect the same in return. 

      Boomer Generation, born after the end of World War II  between 1946 and 1964. Today boomers run local, state and national governments and they dominate the workplace. There are 77 million boomers. They will probably redefine the concept of retirement as they leave the workforce en masse over the next decade.     

      Generation X,  born between 1965 and 1978.   This generation is sometimes referred to as the baby boom bust generation.  To Xers institutions (government, church, military, major corporations) are deserving of skepticism.  The eldest Xers are achieving management positions and the youngest have been in the workforce three years or more. This generation values flexibility and control over their time.

      Generation Y, also called Millennials  born after 1979.   This is known as the baby boom echo generation. Members of this generation are the children and grandchildren of the baby boomers and  will surpass the boomer generation in size. They are entering the workforce  looking for opportunities to learn and move about.

Demographic Statistical Resources